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Impact of myopic decision-making and disruptive events in power systems planning

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Title: Impact of myopic decision-making and disruptive events in power systems planning
Authors: Heuberger, CF
Staffell, I
Shah, N
Mac Dowell, N
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: The delayed deployment of low-carbon energy technologies is impeding energy system decarbonization. The continuing debate about the cost-competitiveness of low-carbon technologies has led to a strategy of waiting for a ‘unicorn technology’ to appear. Here, we show that myopic strategies that rely on the eventual manifestation of a unicorn technology result in either an oversized and underutilized power system when decarbonization objectives are achieved, or one that is far from being decarbonized, even if the unicorn technology becomes available. Under perfect foresight, disruptive technology innovation can reduce total system cost by 13%. However, a strategy of waiting for a unicorn technology that never appears could result in 61% higher cumulative total system cost by mid-century compared to deploying currently available low-carbon technologies early on.
Issue Date: 21-May-2018
Date of Acceptance: 19-Apr-2018
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/60533
DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0159-3
ISSN: 1520-8524
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
Start Page: 634
End Page: 640
Journal / Book Title: Nature Energy
Volume: 3
Copyright Statement: © 2018 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved.
Sponsor/Funder: IEAGHG t/a IEA Environmental Projects Ltd
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (E
Funder's Grant Number: IEA/CON/14/228
UKCCSRC 2017 Partner
Keywords: Science & Technology
Energy & Fuels
Materials Science, Multidisciplinary
Materials Science
Publication Status: Published
Online Publication Date: 2018-05-21
Appears in Collections:Faculty of Engineering
Centre for Environmental Policy
Chemical Engineering
Faculty of Natural Sciences

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