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Modelling the technical potential of bioelectricity production under land use constraints: A multi-region Brazil case study

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Title: Modelling the technical potential of bioelectricity production under land use constraints: A multi-region Brazil case study
Authors: Lyrio de Oliveira, L
García Kerdan, I
De Oliveira Ribeiro, C
Oller do Nascimento, CA
Rego, EE
Giarola, S
Hawkes, A
Item Type: Journal Article
Abstract: In Brazil, bioelectricity generation from sugarcane bagasse and black liquor is regarded as a sustainable electricity supply option. However, questions regarding land use, investment decisions, and demand for paper, ethanol and sugar make its future role uncertain. The aim of this paper is to present a novel modelling framework based on a soft-link between a multi-sectoral Brazilian integrated assessment model (MUSE-Brazil) and an electricity portfolio optimisation model (EPOM). The proposed framework is capable of dynamically simulating sectoral electricity demand, regional bioenergy production under land use constraints and optimal power sector technological shares in each of the electricity subsystems. Considering Brazil under a 2 °C carbon budget, two scenarios based on economic attractiveness of producing second-generation ethanol have been investigated. Under the scenario where second-generation ethanol is not produced, outputs indicate that by 2050, Brazil would increase sugarcane and wood production by 68% and 49% respectively without causing direct or indirect deforestation. Agriculture intensification is evidenced as an alternative for reducing land use disruptions. Bioelectricity share is projected to remain around 9–10%. However, if second generation ethanol becomes cost-effective, thus limiting bagasse availability, the share of bioelectricity production would decrease to approximately 7.7%, with natural gas-fired plants playing a stronger role in the future power system expansion, causing an increase on electricity sector emissions.
Issue Date: 1-May-2020
Date of Acceptance: 8-Feb-2020
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/77129
DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2020.109765
ISSN: 1364-0321
Start Page: 1
End Page: 15
Journal / Book Title: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
Volume: 123
Copyright Statement: © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Sponsor/Funder: Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)
Funder's Grant Number: NE/N018656/1
Keywords: Energy
09 Engineering
Publication Status: Published online
Embargo Date: 2021-02-18
Online Publication Date: 2020-02-18
Appears in Collections:Faculty of Engineering
Chemical Engineering
Grantham Institute for Climate Change